Due to the fact that ANZ Bank and Westpac have stopped offering house loan rates that are close to market low, analysts feel that the intense competition that exists between banks in the $2.1 trillion mortgage market is beginning to subside. Due to the fact that lenders provided significant reductions in interest rates and cash-backs, investors in banks were concerned about the severe competition that existed between banks in 2023 to acquire mortgage customers.
The Commonwealth Bank said that loans were issued at a rate that was lower than its cost of capital, which is the rate of return that shareholders expect, which resulted in a reduction in profit margins. The market for home loans will continue to be a significant battleground; however, analysts feel that some of the most intense rivalry has subsided as banks have maintained their profit margins. Nathan Zaia, an analyst at Morningstar, stated that although the competition for home loans was severe, huge banks were turning their attention more and more toward profitability. Despite the fact that Westpac and ANZ have marginally boosted their advertised mortgage rates more than competitors in recent months, Zaia stated that ANZ continues to expand ahead of the market.
Additionally, he stated that Westpac and ANZ are no longer among the banks that offer the most affordable interest rates. He anticipated that the competition for loans and deposits would decrease as banks focused on increasing their profits. According to Zaia, Commonwealth Bank, which had lost market share in the mortgage market due to intense competition, recently reduced its rates, therefore narrowing the gap between the most affordable and the most expensive rates offered by large banks.
Andrew Lyons, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, stated in a recent note that the competition for home loans had "some alleviation" and that he thought that the returns on Australian mortgages were close to the cost of capital. Lyons stated that any further increase in the level of competition will most likely be "muted." Specifically, he forecasted that the net interest margins of banks, which are a comparison of financing expenses to loan income, would decrease, resulting in a reduction in the banks' profitability.
ANZ was able to grow its house loans at a quicker rate than its competitors in the three months leading up to November, as indicated by information provided by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. This was accomplished by competing on price and cash-back incentives. During the period of September 2023 to January 2024, variable mortgage rates increased for all four of the major banks, according to Zaia. In the middle of the previous year, John Storey, who was the head of research for Australian banks at UBS, concluded that mortgage discounting had reached its pinnacle.
He made the following statement: "The previous year was extremely unusual in the Australian banking landscape because we had a large number of borrowers who were exiting their fixed-rate mortgage commitments." The cliff of fixed-rate mortgages, however, is beginning to recede. During the year 2023, a significant number of clients refinanced their loans after abandoning ultra-low fixed-rate loans, and banks competed for both new and existing customers. Storey stated that the serviceability buffer, which is a stress test that adds a "buffer" of three percentage points to a loan rate, was limiting the development of new loans during the course of the interest rate increase.
As a result of a higher cash rate and "internal return hurdles," Zaia anticipated that Macquarie, a rival to the big four banks that has seen considerable growth in its market share in the mortgage market over the course of the previous three years, would gradually increase its market share. According to Storey, Macquarie is distinguished from the big four by its broker networks, which may be beneficial to the company's growth. It was his assertion that Macquarie has been the most significant disruptor in the mortgage industry over the past few years. The situation does not appear to be coming to a quiet soon.
It is possible that smaller lenders that are more flexible in terms of service and policy would discover that their competitive advantage grows when they employ more competitive rates to fulfill their services. The Big Four Banks are able to depend on their expertise of the industry and their brand, as well as their present huge loan books. However, because it is now simpler and less expensive to change mortgages, consumers not only have more alternatives, but they also have more incentives with fewer limits to move and look for the best rate, service, and products that match their requirements
