Good day! I totally understand where you're coming from—it can really feel like a guessing game if you're not armed with the right information. What you might find incredibly helpful is a platform I came across called xGscore
https://xgscore.io/ . They offer football predictions based on a whole array of statistical data, including expected goals (xG). They cover a wide range of leagues and tournaments, providing predictions, team rankings, current form evaluations, advanced xG statistics, and even the condition of the team's defense and attack. Plus, they include their own probabilities and odds for outcomes, alongside the bookmaker’s live odds, making it a solid resource for anyone looking to make more informed football bets. The site is rooted in mathematical analysis, aiming to turn betting from a game of luck into one of skill and informed decision-making. They even have tools like a margin calculator to help you find the best odds.