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NFL Clutch QB Index Week 13 Trevor Lawre

  • Nothing is much more gripping in sports than a late do-or-die drive with the game on the line. My eyes are usually glued to the screen when one play can be the difference between a win and a lo s.We've seen a ton of clutch opportunities in 2022, a year where the is collectively on pace to break single-season records for close games and game-winning drives.There aren't a ton of numbers to support clutch debates, though. Game-winning drives is a fascinating stat, but has serious limitations. It's actually po sible to be credited with a game-winning drive with nothing but a kneel down Milwaukee Brewers Hats . And, of course, if your defense gets stops at the end of the game, it's more likely to hold a lead, and therefore increases the likelihood of its quarterback recording a game-winning drive.With that in mind, I introduce the Clutch QB Index. I'm not tackling the all-time clutch QB debate, which often comes down to championships in people's minds. Instead, I seek to answer who is the most clutch QB in the NFL right now based on what they've done in their careers, and what they've done lately.1. QB conversion rate on game-tying/go-ahead drive chances in fourth quarter/OT. (How often does a QB succe sfully bring his team down the field to tie or take the lead?) 2. Pa ser rating in fourth quarter/OT of one-po se sion game. (How well does a QB play in crunch time?)Both components are split by career, playoff and 2022 performance and weighted equally. Again, one thing these rankings don't include is championships, so you can save your "seven rings" argument. More on that later. There's also only 31 QBs in the rankings because I'm looking at qualified starting QBs and Jets' signal-caller Mike White hasn't had enough clutch chances. It was a wild weekend with four teams winning on Sunday after trailing by a touchdown in the final two minutes of regulation (Browns, Jaguars, Chargers, Jonathan Villar Jersey Raiders), the most in a single day in NFL history. It also meant lots of activity in the rankings:Josh Allen and the Bills got the ball back in a tie game on Thanksgiving with 23 seconds left and Allen proceeded to throw a dart into triple coverage to Stefon Diggs for 36 yards. There's only a select few quarterbacks who can pull off a late comeback with a throw like that. Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, and now Allen, are at the top of that list.Trevor Lawrence has arrived! Sunday's comeback against the Ravens was the signature moment of his young career. He was 15 of 19 for 173 yards, two touchdowns and a succe sful two-point conversion in the fourth quarter. The touchdown to set up the two-point try was also an unbelievable throw. That was Jacksonville's first win in 26 years when down a touchdown in the final two minutes. Add it all up, and Lawrence moved up five spots here.Joe Burrow didn't have Ja'Marr Chase or Joe Mixon in Week 12, but he did have Trenton Irwin! On third-and-12 in a tie game in the fourth quarter, Burrow completed a perfectly thrown back-shoulder fade to undrafted wide receiver Trenton Irwin of all people. Give Irwin Stephen Vogt Jersey credit, too, for the nice snag. It was his first catch of the game and seventh of the season. Burrow followed that up with a deep ball touchdown to Tee Higgins on that next play. Big win, big throws by Burrow without his best option. He moves up two spots to fourth here.Kirk Cousins and the Vikings won another close game improving to 8-0 in one-score games this year. I give Justin Jefferson a lot of credit for drawing three defenders on Adam Thielen's game-winning touchdown reception (and blame the Patriots' special teams for a penalty to extend the drive), but also credit Cousins for coming through again. Doing so in prime time, and against Bill Belichick's defense is a tall order.And props to Jacoby Bri sett for the Browns' dramatic comeback win against the Buccaneers. Bri sett threw a nice ball to David Njoku to tie the game in the closing seconds in regulation before winning in overtime. Quite a way for Bri sett to go out, with an improbable win against his former teammate, Brady, before handing the keys to Deshaun Watson. Watson takes over the starting QB job this week and lands at No. 2 in the rankings here. More on that later.Kyler Murray and the Cardinals were on the wrong end of the Chargers' fateful two-point conversion on Sunday, but you could argue it shouldn't have even gotten to that point. Murray threw a go-ahead touchdown pa s to James Conner early in the fourth quarter, but then Arizona went three-and-out on its next three drives. Los Angeles had chance after chance and finally capitalized. It's not all on Murray. There was a drop or two and conservative play-calling from Kliff Kingsbury as well, but just one first down might have kept the Chargers from getting their final chance. Murray is down to 27th in these rankings.Tom Brady threw a go-ahead touchdown pa s to Ko Orlando Arcia Jersey Kieft in the third quarter, but then it all fell apart. Tampa Bay's final eight drives: 0 points, seven punts, one failed Hail Mary. It was Brady's first career lo s, including playoffs, with a seven-plus point lead in the final two minutes of regulation. He was 218-0 before Sunday. He falls five spots to 13th in the index.Tampa Bay is still in first place in the NFC South because Marcus Mariota and the Falcons fell just short in Washington. Mariota threw a decisive pick on a ball tipped by Daron Payne near the goal line with a chance to give the Falcons a last-minute lead. Mariota drops three spots to 23rd.Mac Jones is 0 for 9 on game-tying/go-ahead drive opportunities in the fourth quarter and overtime this year, the worst 0-fer in the NFL. He escaped criticism for his lack of heroics against the Jets, thanks to Zach Wilson's shortcomings and Marcus Jones' game-winning punt return touchdown. It was hard to mi s on Thanksgiving, though. Sure, Jones threw for a career-high 382 yards, but the Patriots failed to score on four drives in the fourth quarter of a tight gameWeek 13 Clutch QB Index1 Miami Dolphins QB Tua has converted on 11-of-14 career game-tying/go-ahead drive chances in the fourth quarter/OT and his career pa ser rating in the fourth quarter/OT of a one-score game is 125.4. Both are the best career numbers of any current starting QB. He's backed up the numbers with big plays late in victories over the Bills and Ravens this season. He also hasn't trailed (or even been tied) in the fourth quarter of a game since Week 3 vs the Bills, so it'll be interesting to see if he can stay No. 1 as Miami faces five teams with winning records in its final six games. P.S., another reason we shouldn't be too shocked to see Tua at No. 1 ... remember when he threw a walk-off touchdown pa s to DeVonta Smith in the National Championship game after coming off the bench? Big moments clearly don't phase Tua.2 Cleveland Browns QB Watson debuts at No. 2 in the rankings after he's converted on Glenn Robinson Jersey 45% of his game-tying/go-ahead drive chances in his career, fifth in the NFL. He has a sizzling
      March 13, 2023 6:44 PM PDT
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